Rivals rankings and the NFL Draft

Thanks for dinner Pat, those hush puppies must be laced with cocaine, I had at least 25 of 'em.

I promised Rivals rankings of NFL Draftees, analysis to follow.

First round only, Rivals rankings, results at the bottom, if you want details I'm listing those as well.

2011 Draft:
1.  Cam Newton - 5* 2007
2.  Von Miller - 4* 2007
3.  Marcell Dareus - 3* 2008
4.  A.J. Green - 5* 2008
5.  Patrick Peterson - 5* 2008
6.  Julio Jones - 5* 2008
7.  Aldon Smith - 3* 2008
8.  Jake Locker - 4* 2006
9.  Tyron Smith - 5* 2008
10. Blaine Gabbert - 5* 2008
11. J.J. Watt - 2* 2007
12. Christian Ponder - 3* 2006
13. Nick Fairley - 3* 2007
14. Robert Quinn - 4* 2008
15. Mike Pouncey - 4* 2007
16. Ryan Kerrigan - 3* 2007
17. Nate Solder - 3* 2006
18. Corey Liuget - 4* 2008
19. Prince Amukamara - 3* 2007
20. Adrian Clayborn - 4* 2006
21. Phil Taylor - 4* 2006
22. Anthony Castonzo - 2* 2007
23. Danny Watkins - NR 2007
24. Cameron Jordan - 3* 2007
25. James Carpenter - 2* 2007
26. Jonathan Baldwin - 5* 2008
27. Jimmy Smith - 3* 2006
28. Mark Ingram - 4* 2008
29. Gabe Carimi - 3* 2006
30. Muhammed Wilkerson - 2* 2007
31. Cameron Heyward - 4* 2007
32. Derek Sherrod - 4* 2007

32 players, 7 5*s, 10 4*s, 10 3*s, 4 2*s, and 1 NR player.  Avg * rating 3.53

2010 Draft:

1.  Sam Bradford - 3* 2006
2.  Ndamukong Suh - 4* 2005
3.  Gerald McCoy - 5* 2006
4.  Trent Williams - 3* 2006
5.  Eric Berry - 5* 2007
6.  Russell Okung - 3* 2006
7.  Joe Haden - 4* 2007
8.  Rolando McClain - 4* 2007
9.  CJ Spiller - 5* 2006
10. Tyson Alualu - 3* 2005
11. Anthony Davis - 4* 2007
12. Ryan Mathews - NR - (couldn't find any info on Rivals)
13. Brandon Graham - 5* 2006
14. Earl Thomas - 4* 2007
15. Jason Pierre-Paul - 2* 2007
16. Derrick Morgan - 4* 2007
17. Mike Iupati - 2* 2005
18. Maurkice Pouncey - 4* 2007
19. Sean Weatherspoon - 2* 2006
20. Kareem Jackson - 4* 2007
21. Jermaine Gresham - 4* 2006
22. Demaryius Thomas - 3* 2006
23. Bryan Bulaga - 4* 2007
24. Dez Bryant - 4* 2007
25. Tim Tebow - 5* 2006
26. Dan Williams - 3* 2005
27. Devin McCourty - 2* 2005
28. Jared Odrick - 4* 2006
29. Kyle Wilson - 2* 2005
30. Jahvid Best - 4* 2007
31. Jerry Hughes - 2* 2006
32. Patrick Robinson - 4* 2006

32 players, 5 5*s, 14 4*s, 5 3*s, 6 2*s, 1 NR player, Avg * rating 3.375

1.   Matthew Stafford - 5* 2006

2.   Jason Smith - 2* 2004

3.   Tyson Jackson - 3* 2004

4.   Aaron Curry - 2* 2004

5.   Mark Sanchez - 5* 2005

6.   Andre Smith - 5* 2006

7.   Darrius Heyward-Bey - 4* 2005

8.   Eugene Monroe - 5* 2005

9.   B.J. Raji - 2* 2004

10. Michael Crabtree - 4* 2006

11. Aaron Maybin - 4* 2006

12. Knowshon Moreno - 4* 2006

13. Brian Orakpo - 4* 2004

14. Malcolm Jenkins - 3* 2005

15. Brian Cushing - 4* 2005

16. Larry English - 2* 2004

17. Josh Freeman - 4* 2006

18. Robert Ayers - 4* 2004

19. Jeremy Maclin - 4* 2006

20. Brandon Pettigrew - 2* 2004

21. Alex Mack - 2* 2004

22. Percy Harvin - 5* 2006

23. Michael Oher - 4* 2004

24. Peria Jerry - 3* 2004

25. Vontae Davis - 3* 2006

26. Clay Matthews - NR 

27. Donald Brown - 3* 2005

28. Eric Wood - 2* 2004

29. Hakeem Nicks - 4* 2006

30. Kenny Britt - 4* 2006

31. Chris Wells - 5* 2006

32. Evander Hood - 3* 2005

32 players, 6 5*s, 12 4*s, 6 3*s, 7 2*s, 1 NR, Avg * ranking 3.44

2005 Rivals Breakdown:

5*s     36

4*s   285

3*s   700+

Assuming the averages, the percentage of each category taken in the first round is as follows:
5*s - 16%
4*s -  4%
3*s -  1%

I could not find an accurate number of 3*s or 2*s, Rivals site was not working properly.


Next, I want to find out the production level of * rankings in different leagues.  For instance, in the SEC does a 5* LB make more tackles or interceptions than a 4, 3, or 2* athlete.  I'm going to assume averages and only use 5 players per * category and their production from 2006, 2007, and 2008 classes.

Just a sample

One post down and while I had a few extra names, the point I made was reiterated by Mel Kiper as he released his top 5 per position for the 2013 draft.  I may be a little more optimistic about the Hogs chances to pull an Alabama and be represented 3 or 4 times in the first round, Kiper definitely sees the improvement of the talent level in Fayetteville.  Just like I said a few days earlier, Alabama, Georgia, and Arkansas should be the most well represented SEC teams in the 2013 draft.

I want to see how accurate Rivals recruiting service faired with their 2003 evaluation of QB's.  Everyone says it's easy for the recruiting services to recognize the top talent, and then everyone else is much more difficult to analyze.  So let's take a look at how they analyzed that "top talent."

The following are the top 5 Pro-Style QBs in 2003 according to Rivals.

Top 5 Pro-Style QBs in 2003:

1. Kyle Wright
While Wright spent a limited amount of time at the professional level, he's currently a free-agent and was undrafted after expectations were to go on day 2 of the draft.

2. Chris Leak
Chris Leak helped Florida win Urban Meyer's first BCS National Championship in 2007, but was not selected in the NFL draft.  He did however spend a short time with the Bears before being drafted in the sixth round of the Arena Football League and is currently playing for the Jacksonville Sharks.

3. Tommy Grady
Tommy Grady originally went to OU, but transferred to Utah after Jason White solidified the starting job.  He was undrafted and is currently playing Arena Football for the Utah Blaze.

4. Clayton Richard
Richard is a different story, he went to Michigan and was unable to beat out Chad Henne for the starting job.  He focused his attention to baseball, was selected in the 8th round of the MLB draft and is currently pitching for the San Diego Padres.

5. Kevin McCabe
McCabe went to Virginia, where he saw very limited action and barely has enough stats to register as a player for the Cavaliers.  He threw only 14 passes in his college career and is no longer playing football.

The names not in the top 5 that really stand out are:
Matt Ryan-selected 3rd overall in the 2008 NFL draft.
Joe Flacco-selected 18th overall in the 2008 NFL draft.
Brady Quinn-selected 22nd overall in the 2007 NFL draft.

To the credit of Rivals, they did have JaMarcus Russell listed as their 6th best QB, JaMarcus was the first pick in the 2007 draft, but could not get it done at the NFL level.

Of the remaining top 50 there are several current NFL players in backup roles, it's just curious to me that none of the top 5 QBs according to Rivals in 2003 are still participating at the highest level, while several of the QBs outside the top 5 have made a fantastic living in the NFL.