Sunday, January 22, 2012

The SEC and the NFL Draft

The SEC is coming into another draft expecting to be well represented on the draft floor in New York.  While there are more mock drafts than I care to mention, a few names seem to be agreed upon in the first round.

Trent Richardson - Alabama
Morris Claiborne - LSU
Dre' Kirkpatrick - Alabama
Courtney Upshaw - Alabama
Melvin Ingram - South Carolina
Mark Barron - Alabama
Cordy Glenn - Georgia
Fletcher Cox - Mississippi State
Michael Brockers - LSU
Alshon Jeffery - South Carolina

Let's see who the first rounders were last year.

Cam Newton - Auburn
Marcell Dareus - Alabama
A.J. Green - Georgia
Patrick Peterson - LSU
Julio Jones - Alabama
Nick Fairley - Auburn
Mike Pouncey - Florida
James Carpenter - Alabama
Mark Ingram - Alabama
Derek Sherrod - Mississippi State

This is where I go out and make some wild predictions, enjoy.

The first round of next year's NFL draft will go as follows:

1.   Matt Barkley - QB - USC
2.   Knile Davis - RB - Arkansas
3.   Sam Montgomery - DE/OLB - LSU
4.   Kwame Geathers - DT - Georgia
5.   Manti Te'o - LB - Notre Dame
6.   Marcus Lattimore - RB - South Carolina
7.   Matt Elam - S - Florida
8.   Alex Okafor - DE/OLB - Texas
9.   Tyler Wilson - QB - Arkansas
10. Robert Woods - WR - USC
11. Xavier Rhodes - DB - Florida State
12. Tom Wort - LB - Oklahoma
13. Keenan Allen - WR - California
14. Aaron Murray - QB - Georgia
15. Tenarious Wright - DE/OLB - Arkansas
16. CJ Mosley - LB - Alabama
17. Seantrel Henderson - OT - Miami
18. Jarvis Jones - LB - Georgia
19. Jake Matthews - OT - Texas A&M
20. Alvin Bailey - OG - Arkansas
21. Barrett Jones - OT - Alabama
22. Jelani Jenkins - LB - Florida
23. DJ Fluker - OT - Alabama
24. Tony Jefferson - S - Oklahoma
25. Khaled Holmes - C - USC
26. DeMarcus Milliner - DB - Alabama
27. Tyrann Mathieu - DB - LSU
28. Cobi Hamilton - WR - Arkansas
29. TJ McDonald - S - USC
30. Marquess Wilson - WR - Washington State
31. Tyler Eifert - TE - Notre Dame
32. DD Jones - DT - Arkansas

That's 19 of 32 players selected from the SEC, the overwhelming majority of players in next year's first round will come from the SEC, but from Alabama, Georgia, and potentially Arkansas.  Alabama will probably have an incredible 3rd year in a row where 4 players from their roster are taken in the first round.  LSU could also sneak into that mix, but with so many underclassmen declaring for the draft this year, it's hard to figure out who those players would be.  There's always room for the unknown, like Cam Newton and Nick Fairley.  After a careful assessment of draft eligible players headed into next year, a glance at their stats, and size/speed ratios I came up with that list.  How accurate is it?  I'd be surprised if 50% of these players actually end up in the first round, so not very accurate, but it's something to go on.

I truly believe Arkansas will have four representatives in the top 45 picks.  The confident picks, Tyler Wilson, Alvin Bailey, and Tenarious Wright given they stay healthy, should find themselves with a franchise by the end of the first day of the draft.  The reaches are Knile Davis, although given a healthy year we've seen what he can do, Cobi Hamilton, Chris Gragg, and DD Jones, will almost certainly find NFL teams, but which day of the draft they know which teams those are depends on the upcoming season.  Then you've got the longshots, Alonzo Highsmith, Darius Winston, and Robert Thomas.  There are others, but this list of ten players are the most probable NFL prospects currently in Fayetteville.  No one benefits more from a change in the coaching staff than Darius Winston, he's a five star athlete that just didn't seem to click in Willy Robinson's schemes.  Some fresh faces and new ideas could take this underachiever and put him among the school's best all-time defenders, and rocket him past all other DB's in the upcoming draft.  His athleticism alone will probably get him drafted, so if the new defensive staff can match that with a confidence in the scheme, we might witness the biggest one year single player transformation in Razorback history.  No matter what we're going to see a lot more Razorbacks taken than we've seen in recent memory.  Only a few times do I remember two Razorbacks going in the first round, so with the potential to send three to five next year, Petrino has more talent than he's ever had in his college coaching career.  We know what he can do with less talent than the competition, let's see what happens when the tides are turned.  Pun intended!

Woo Pig Sooie!