It's been awhile since my last post, sorry, I have to work every now and again to keep my pontoon boat from going back to the bank. It's football season and I'm back to lay a healthy dose of reality to all the irrational, idiotic Hog fans out there.
Bama, is really, really good, and right now if the line for Sept 15th was 17.5 I'd take Bama and give up the points. It's really going to be a struggle to move the ball on the ground and last year we saw how Tyler faired when trying to find time in the pocket. I'm calling Bama a Loss.
Texas A&M in what will be a crazy environment down in College Station, I haven't seen the Aggies play yet, but I'm very nervous about what they can do through the air. I feel their D will be as porous as ours and their offense not quite as good, but better than JSU. I'm giving the home field advantage four points and if the line is Arkansas by 3.5 my money will be on Texas A&M to not only cover, but win the game. This, unfortunately, is just a matchup issue and will be our second loss.
Auburn on the road, if John L. Smith wants to earn that $800K we threw his way, he better the group refocused on what will be a very difficult road game. If Auburn is still struggling to score in the RedZone, I give the Hogs a two touchdown advantage, if the Tigers come around and find some offensive threats, I think it's a close game, but Arkansas just has too much offense. If the line is 6.5 Hogs, I'm taking the Hogs and giving up the points. That's our first SEC Win.
Kentucky, I might stay home to watch Desperate Housewives re-runs...W
Ole Miss in the Rock, not a chance Hugh....W
South Carolina in Columbia, this one scares me a bit, because I think Connor Shaw and that offense will eventually find a nice rhythm, they have athletes all over the field, and as always the Cocks will have a nice pass rush. Problem for SC will be their willingness to play hard when they have nothing on the line to play for, I think they struggle this year in the SEC and Georgia has a 2 or 3 game lead over them in the East by this point in the season. Line favors Arkansas by 4.5, I'm taking the Hogs and giving up the points, Hogs win by double digits.
Miss St in Starkhellhole, the Dogs come up short what feels like every single year, the Hogs have blown them out a few times, but usually this is a game that scares everyone. I think this is the year the Bulldogs break through, with the Hogs playing for BCS consideration, the Bulldogs spoil the party and leave the Hogs right in the middle of the SEC West race at 4-3. Hogs get 7.5 and I'm taking Miss St and the points.
LSU in Fayetteville, lucky for LSU Arkansas is looking at the Outback Bowl and the Cotton Bowl as potential season finale's and with the season opening expectations of the players they could care less which second tier bowl they end up in. Unfortunately for LSU this is the first year this game will be played in Fayetteville in a long time and the NorthWest Arkansas wine and cheese crowd will be full of Thanksgiving hatred and looking for someone else's season to spoil. Tigers get 2.5 and I'm taking the Hogs and the points, but I won't need them, Hogs win big and put the Hogs at 5-3 in the SEC and 9-3 overall.
Arkansas offers 4 coaching candidates who all say, "no," before asking Mark Mangino if he'd like to be the Head Hog.
Merry Christmas, make sure you don't get hammered before you go to Christmas Eve Mass, turns out the Priest does not like it when I get an irresistable thirst for red wine during the communion.
Happy New Year!
Hogs get West Virginia in the Cotton Bowl and find out why it's important to have Safeties on your team that aren't mentally challenged, Mountaineers win 45-35.
Now we can watch Mike put the pieces of a once proud basketball program back together and gear up for another very dissappointing National Signing Day in February. Don't get too upset Hog Fans, the Masters is right around the corner and then Baseball Season should be a lot of fun this year.
Thursday, September 6, 2012
Sunday, February 5, 2012
Rivals rankings and the NFL Draft
Thanks for dinner Pat, those hush puppies must be laced with cocaine, I had at least 25 of 'em.
I promised Rivals rankings of NFL Draftees, analysis to follow.
First round only, Rivals rankings, results at the bottom, if you want details I'm listing those as well.
2011 Draft:
1. Cam Newton - 5* 2007
2. Von Miller - 4* 2007
3. Marcell Dareus - 3* 2008
4. A.J. Green - 5* 2008
5. Patrick Peterson - 5* 2008
6. Julio Jones - 5* 2008
7. Aldon Smith - 3* 2008
8. Jake Locker - 4* 2006
9. Tyron Smith - 5* 2008
10. Blaine Gabbert - 5* 2008
11. J.J. Watt - 2* 2007
12. Christian Ponder - 3* 2006
13. Nick Fairley - 3* 2007
14. Robert Quinn - 4* 2008
15. Mike Pouncey - 4* 2007
16. Ryan Kerrigan - 3* 2007
17. Nate Solder - 3* 2006
18. Corey Liuget - 4* 2008
19. Prince Amukamara - 3* 2007
20. Adrian Clayborn - 4* 2006
21. Phil Taylor - 4* 2006
22. Anthony Castonzo - 2* 2007
23. Danny Watkins - NR 2007
24. Cameron Jordan - 3* 2007
25. James Carpenter - 2* 2007
26. Jonathan Baldwin - 5* 2008
27. Jimmy Smith - 3* 2006
28. Mark Ingram - 4* 2008
29. Gabe Carimi - 3* 2006
30. Muhammed Wilkerson - 2* 2007
31. Cameron Heyward - 4* 2007
32. Derek Sherrod - 4* 2007
32 players, 7 5*s, 10 4*s, 10 3*s, 4 2*s, and 1 NR player. Avg * rating 3.53
2010 Draft:
1. Sam Bradford - 3* 2006
2. Ndamukong Suh - 4* 2005
3. Gerald McCoy - 5* 2006
4. Trent Williams - 3* 2006
5. Eric Berry - 5* 2007
6. Russell Okung - 3* 2006
7. Joe Haden - 4* 2007
8. Rolando McClain - 4* 2007
9. CJ Spiller - 5* 2006
10. Tyson Alualu - 3* 2005
11. Anthony Davis - 4* 2007
12. Ryan Mathews - NR - (couldn't find any info on Rivals)
13. Brandon Graham - 5* 2006
14. Earl Thomas - 4* 2007
15. Jason Pierre-Paul - 2* 2007
16. Derrick Morgan - 4* 2007
17. Mike Iupati - 2* 2005
18. Maurkice Pouncey - 4* 2007
19. Sean Weatherspoon - 2* 2006
20. Kareem Jackson - 4* 2007
21. Jermaine Gresham - 4* 2006
22. Demaryius Thomas - 3* 2006
23. Bryan Bulaga - 4* 2007
24. Dez Bryant - 4* 2007
25. Tim Tebow - 5* 2006
26. Dan Williams - 3* 2005
27. Devin McCourty - 2* 2005
28. Jared Odrick - 4* 2006
29. Kyle Wilson - 2* 2005
30. Jahvid Best - 4* 2007
31. Jerry Hughes - 2* 2006
32. Patrick Robinson - 4* 2006
32 players, 5 5*s, 14 4*s, 5 3*s, 6 2*s, 1 NR player, Avg * rating 3.375
1. Matthew Stafford - 5* 2006
2. Jason Smith - 2* 2004
3. Tyson Jackson - 3* 2004
4. Aaron Curry - 2* 2004
5. Mark Sanchez - 5* 2005
6. Andre Smith - 5* 2006
7. Darrius Heyward-Bey - 4* 2005
8. Eugene Monroe - 5* 2005
9. B.J. Raji - 2* 2004
10. Michael Crabtree - 4* 2006
11. Aaron Maybin - 4* 2006
12. Knowshon Moreno - 4* 2006
13. Brian Orakpo - 4* 2004
14. Malcolm Jenkins - 3* 2005
15. Brian Cushing - 4* 2005
16. Larry English - 2* 2004
17. Josh Freeman - 4* 2006
18. Robert Ayers - 4* 2004
19. Jeremy Maclin - 4* 2006
20. Brandon Pettigrew - 2* 2004
21. Alex Mack - 2* 2004
22. Percy Harvin - 5* 2006
23. Michael Oher - 4* 2004
24. Peria Jerry - 3* 2004
25. Vontae Davis - 3* 2006
26. Clay Matthews - NR
27. Donald Brown - 3* 2005
28. Eric Wood - 2* 2004
29. Hakeem Nicks - 4* 2006
30. Kenny Britt - 4* 2006
31. Chris Wells - 5* 2006
32. Evander Hood - 3* 2005
32 players, 6 5*s, 12 4*s, 6 3*s, 7 2*s, 1 NR, Avg * ranking 3.44
2005 Rivals Breakdown:
5*s 36
4*s 285
3*s 700+
Assuming the averages, the percentage of each category taken in the first round is as follows:
5*s - 16%
4*s - 4%
3*s - 1%
I could not find an accurate number of 3*s or 2*s, Rivals site was not working properly.
Next, I want to find out the production level of * rankings in different leagues. For instance, in the SEC does a 5* LB make more tackles or interceptions than a 4, 3, or 2* athlete. I'm going to assume averages and only use 5 players per * category and their production from 2006, 2007, and 2008 classes.
Assuming the averages, the percentage of each category taken in the first round is as follows:
5*s - 16%
4*s - 4%
3*s - 1%
I could not find an accurate number of 3*s or 2*s, Rivals site was not working properly.
Next, I want to find out the production level of * rankings in different leagues. For instance, in the SEC does a 5* LB make more tackles or interceptions than a 4, 3, or 2* athlete. I'm going to assume averages and only use 5 players per * category and their production from 2006, 2007, and 2008 classes.
Saturday, February 4, 2012
Just a sample
One post down and while I had a few extra names, the point I made was reiterated by Mel Kiper as he released his top 5 per position for the 2013 draft. I may be a little more optimistic about the Hogs chances to pull an Alabama and be represented 3 or 4 times in the first round, Kiper definitely sees the improvement of the talent level in Fayetteville. Just like I said a few days earlier, Alabama, Georgia, and Arkansas should be the most well represented SEC teams in the 2013 draft.
I want to see how accurate Rivals recruiting service faired with their 2003 evaluation of QB's. Everyone says it's easy for the recruiting services to recognize the top talent, and then everyone else is much more difficult to analyze. So let's take a look at how they analyzed that "top talent."
The following are the top 5 Pro-Style QBs in 2003 according to Rivals.
Top 5 Pro-Style QBs in 2003:
1. Kyle Wright
While Wright spent a limited amount of time at the professional level, he's currently a free-agent and was undrafted after expectations were to go on day 2 of the draft.
2. Chris Leak
Chris Leak helped Florida win Urban Meyer's first BCS National Championship in 2007, but was not selected in the NFL draft. He did however spend a short time with the Bears before being drafted in the sixth round of the Arena Football League and is currently playing for the Jacksonville Sharks.
3. Tommy Grady
Tommy Grady originally went to OU, but transferred to Utah after Jason White solidified the starting job. He was undrafted and is currently playing Arena Football for the Utah Blaze.
4. Clayton Richard
Richard is a different story, he went to Michigan and was unable to beat out Chad Henne for the starting job. He focused his attention to baseball, was selected in the 8th round of the MLB draft and is currently pitching for the San Diego Padres.
5. Kevin McCabe
McCabe went to Virginia, where he saw very limited action and barely has enough stats to register as a player for the Cavaliers. He threw only 14 passes in his college career and is no longer playing football.
The names not in the top 5 that really stand out are:
Matt Ryan-selected 3rd overall in the 2008 NFL draft.
Joe Flacco-selected 18th overall in the 2008 NFL draft.
Brady Quinn-selected 22nd overall in the 2007 NFL draft.
To the credit of Rivals, they did have JaMarcus Russell listed as their 6th best QB, JaMarcus was the first pick in the 2007 draft, but could not get it done at the NFL level.
Of the remaining top 50 there are several current NFL players in backup roles, it's just curious to me that none of the top 5 QBs according to Rivals in 2003 are still participating at the highest level, while several of the QBs outside the top 5 have made a fantastic living in the NFL.
I want to see how accurate Rivals recruiting service faired with their 2003 evaluation of QB's. Everyone says it's easy for the recruiting services to recognize the top talent, and then everyone else is much more difficult to analyze. So let's take a look at how they analyzed that "top talent."
The following are the top 5 Pro-Style QBs in 2003 according to Rivals.
Top 5 Pro-Style QBs in 2003:
1. Kyle Wright
While Wright spent a limited amount of time at the professional level, he's currently a free-agent and was undrafted after expectations were to go on day 2 of the draft.
2. Chris Leak
Chris Leak helped Florida win Urban Meyer's first BCS National Championship in 2007, but was not selected in the NFL draft. He did however spend a short time with the Bears before being drafted in the sixth round of the Arena Football League and is currently playing for the Jacksonville Sharks.
3. Tommy Grady
Tommy Grady originally went to OU, but transferred to Utah after Jason White solidified the starting job. He was undrafted and is currently playing Arena Football for the Utah Blaze.
4. Clayton Richard
Richard is a different story, he went to Michigan and was unable to beat out Chad Henne for the starting job. He focused his attention to baseball, was selected in the 8th round of the MLB draft and is currently pitching for the San Diego Padres.
5. Kevin McCabe
McCabe went to Virginia, where he saw very limited action and barely has enough stats to register as a player for the Cavaliers. He threw only 14 passes in his college career and is no longer playing football.
The names not in the top 5 that really stand out are:
Matt Ryan-selected 3rd overall in the 2008 NFL draft.
Joe Flacco-selected 18th overall in the 2008 NFL draft.
Brady Quinn-selected 22nd overall in the 2007 NFL draft.
To the credit of Rivals, they did have JaMarcus Russell listed as their 6th best QB, JaMarcus was the first pick in the 2007 draft, but could not get it done at the NFL level.
Of the remaining top 50 there are several current NFL players in backup roles, it's just curious to me that none of the top 5 QBs according to Rivals in 2003 are still participating at the highest level, while several of the QBs outside the top 5 have made a fantastic living in the NFL.
Sunday, January 22, 2012
The SEC and the NFL Draft
The SEC is coming into another draft expecting to be well represented on the draft floor in New York. While there are more mock drafts than I care to mention, a few names seem to be agreed upon in the first round.
Trent Richardson - Alabama
Morris Claiborne - LSU
Dre' Kirkpatrick - Alabama
Courtney Upshaw - Alabama
Melvin Ingram - South Carolina
Mark Barron - Alabama
Cordy Glenn - Georgia
Fletcher Cox - Mississippi State
Michael Brockers - LSU
Alshon Jeffery - South Carolina
Let's see who the first rounders were last year.
Cam Newton - Auburn
Marcell Dareus - Alabama
A.J. Green - Georgia
Patrick Peterson - LSU
Julio Jones - Alabama
Nick Fairley - Auburn
Mike Pouncey - Florida
James Carpenter - Alabama
Mark Ingram - Alabama
Derek Sherrod - Mississippi State
This is where I go out and make some wild predictions, enjoy.
The first round of next year's NFL draft will go as follows:
1. Matt Barkley - QB - USC
2. Knile Davis - RB - Arkansas
3. Sam Montgomery - DE/OLB - LSU
4. Kwame Geathers - DT - Georgia
5. Manti Te'o - LB - Notre Dame
6. Marcus Lattimore - RB - South Carolina
7. Matt Elam - S - Florida
8. Alex Okafor - DE/OLB - Texas
9. Tyler Wilson - QB - Arkansas
10. Robert Woods - WR - USC
11. Xavier Rhodes - DB - Florida State
12. Tom Wort - LB - Oklahoma
13. Keenan Allen - WR - California
14. Aaron Murray - QB - Georgia
15. Tenarious Wright - DE/OLB - Arkansas
16. CJ Mosley - LB - Alabama
17. Seantrel Henderson - OT - Miami
18. Jarvis Jones - LB - Georgia
19. Jake Matthews - OT - Texas A&M
20. Alvin Bailey - OG - Arkansas
21. Barrett Jones - OT - Alabama
22. Jelani Jenkins - LB - Florida
23. DJ Fluker - OT - Alabama
24. Tony Jefferson - S - Oklahoma
25. Khaled Holmes - C - USC
26. DeMarcus Milliner - DB - Alabama
27. Tyrann Mathieu - DB - LSU
28. Cobi Hamilton - WR - Arkansas
29. TJ McDonald - S - USC
30. Marquess Wilson - WR - Washington State
31. Tyler Eifert - TE - Notre Dame
32. DD Jones - DT - Arkansas
That's 19 of 32 players selected from the SEC, the overwhelming majority of players in next year's first round will come from the SEC, but from Alabama, Georgia, and potentially Arkansas. Alabama will probably have an incredible 3rd year in a row where 4 players from their roster are taken in the first round. LSU could also sneak into that mix, but with so many underclassmen declaring for the draft this year, it's hard to figure out who those players would be. There's always room for the unknown, like Cam Newton and Nick Fairley. After a careful assessment of draft eligible players headed into next year, a glance at their stats, and size/speed ratios I came up with that list. How accurate is it? I'd be surprised if 50% of these players actually end up in the first round, so not very accurate, but it's something to go on.
I truly believe Arkansas will have four representatives in the top 45 picks. The confident picks, Tyler Wilson, Alvin Bailey, and Tenarious Wright given they stay healthy, should find themselves with a franchise by the end of the first day of the draft. The reaches are Knile Davis, although given a healthy year we've seen what he can do, Cobi Hamilton, Chris Gragg, and DD Jones, will almost certainly find NFL teams, but which day of the draft they know which teams those are depends on the upcoming season. Then you've got the longshots, Alonzo Highsmith, Darius Winston, and Robert Thomas. There are others, but this list of ten players are the most probable NFL prospects currently in Fayetteville. No one benefits more from a change in the coaching staff than Darius Winston, he's a five star athlete that just didn't seem to click in Willy Robinson's schemes. Some fresh faces and new ideas could take this underachiever and put him among the school's best all-time defenders, and rocket him past all other DB's in the upcoming draft. His athleticism alone will probably get him drafted, so if the new defensive staff can match that with a confidence in the scheme, we might witness the biggest one year single player transformation in Razorback history. No matter what we're going to see a lot more Razorbacks taken than we've seen in recent memory. Only a few times do I remember two Razorbacks going in the first round, so with the potential to send three to five next year, Petrino has more talent than he's ever had in his college coaching career. We know what he can do with less talent than the competition, let's see what happens when the tides are turned. Pun intended!
Woo Pig Sooie!
Trent Richardson - Alabama
Morris Claiborne - LSU
Dre' Kirkpatrick - Alabama
Courtney Upshaw - Alabama
Melvin Ingram - South Carolina
Mark Barron - Alabama
Cordy Glenn - Georgia
Fletcher Cox - Mississippi State
Michael Brockers - LSU
Alshon Jeffery - South Carolina
Let's see who the first rounders were last year.
Cam Newton - Auburn
Marcell Dareus - Alabama
A.J. Green - Georgia
Patrick Peterson - LSU
Julio Jones - Alabama
Nick Fairley - Auburn
Mike Pouncey - Florida
James Carpenter - Alabama
Mark Ingram - Alabama
Derek Sherrod - Mississippi State
This is where I go out and make some wild predictions, enjoy.
The first round of next year's NFL draft will go as follows:
1. Matt Barkley - QB - USC
2. Knile Davis - RB - Arkansas
3. Sam Montgomery - DE/OLB - LSU
4. Kwame Geathers - DT - Georgia
5. Manti Te'o - LB - Notre Dame
6. Marcus Lattimore - RB - South Carolina
7. Matt Elam - S - Florida
8. Alex Okafor - DE/OLB - Texas
9. Tyler Wilson - QB - Arkansas
10. Robert Woods - WR - USC
11. Xavier Rhodes - DB - Florida State
12. Tom Wort - LB - Oklahoma
13. Keenan Allen - WR - California
14. Aaron Murray - QB - Georgia
15. Tenarious Wright - DE/OLB - Arkansas
16. CJ Mosley - LB - Alabama
17. Seantrel Henderson - OT - Miami
18. Jarvis Jones - LB - Georgia
19. Jake Matthews - OT - Texas A&M
20. Alvin Bailey - OG - Arkansas
21. Barrett Jones - OT - Alabama
22. Jelani Jenkins - LB - Florida
23. DJ Fluker - OT - Alabama
24. Tony Jefferson - S - Oklahoma
25. Khaled Holmes - C - USC
26. DeMarcus Milliner - DB - Alabama
27. Tyrann Mathieu - DB - LSU
28. Cobi Hamilton - WR - Arkansas
29. TJ McDonald - S - USC
30. Marquess Wilson - WR - Washington State
31. Tyler Eifert - TE - Notre Dame
32. DD Jones - DT - Arkansas
That's 19 of 32 players selected from the SEC, the overwhelming majority of players in next year's first round will come from the SEC, but from Alabama, Georgia, and potentially Arkansas. Alabama will probably have an incredible 3rd year in a row where 4 players from their roster are taken in the first round. LSU could also sneak into that mix, but with so many underclassmen declaring for the draft this year, it's hard to figure out who those players would be. There's always room for the unknown, like Cam Newton and Nick Fairley. After a careful assessment of draft eligible players headed into next year, a glance at their stats, and size/speed ratios I came up with that list. How accurate is it? I'd be surprised if 50% of these players actually end up in the first round, so not very accurate, but it's something to go on.
I truly believe Arkansas will have four representatives in the top 45 picks. The confident picks, Tyler Wilson, Alvin Bailey, and Tenarious Wright given they stay healthy, should find themselves with a franchise by the end of the first day of the draft. The reaches are Knile Davis, although given a healthy year we've seen what he can do, Cobi Hamilton, Chris Gragg, and DD Jones, will almost certainly find NFL teams, but which day of the draft they know which teams those are depends on the upcoming season. Then you've got the longshots, Alonzo Highsmith, Darius Winston, and Robert Thomas. There are others, but this list of ten players are the most probable NFL prospects currently in Fayetteville. No one benefits more from a change in the coaching staff than Darius Winston, he's a five star athlete that just didn't seem to click in Willy Robinson's schemes. Some fresh faces and new ideas could take this underachiever and put him among the school's best all-time defenders, and rocket him past all other DB's in the upcoming draft. His athleticism alone will probably get him drafted, so if the new defensive staff can match that with a confidence in the scheme, we might witness the biggest one year single player transformation in Razorback history. No matter what we're going to see a lot more Razorbacks taken than we've seen in recent memory. Only a few times do I remember two Razorbacks going in the first round, so with the potential to send three to five next year, Petrino has more talent than he's ever had in his college coaching career. We know what he can do with less talent than the competition, let's see what happens when the tides are turned. Pun intended!
Woo Pig Sooie!
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